Shanghai nickel suggests paying attention to inves

2022-05-27
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Shanghai nickel suggested paying attention to investment opportunities in the third quarter

on the trading day before and after the Dragon Boat Festival, the US government announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on imported Chinese goods worth US $50 billion, including important science and technology. So far, Sino US trade frictions have further worsened. With the spread of panic in the global market, bulk commodities bear the brunt of the sell-off and fell sharply. LME copper fell to US $6809/ton from the high of US $7348/ton in the year, a decrease of more than 7%, and LME nickel also fell below the US $15000 mark. The overall negative industrial products in the Sino US trade dispute were better than domestic agricultural products. After the festival, domestic industrial products opened low as promised, and the Wenhua commodity index fell 2% to 160, but the variety fundamentals were differentiated, and the commodity trends were not the same. Due to the relatively strong fundamentals, the nickel price was slightly under pressure during the week, but the overall trend is still strong

we believe that the medium and short-term nature of nickel market is to put aside the long-term nature of the macro disturbance, while the basic nature of nickel market is to return to neutral. The medium and long-term upward trend of nickel price lies in the logic that the supply gap continues to expand due to the continuous tightening of upstream supply and the huge potential of downstream new demand. The inventory data reflects the market supply and demand. The refined nickel inventory in Shanghai and Lun has entered the downward channel since 2016, and has entered the rapid destocking stage since the beginning of the year. The domestic explicit inventory has decreased by 40% within half a year, and the registered warehouse receipt has also decreased from 33000 tons at the beginning of the year to 25000 tons in late June, a decrease of 24%. The sharp rise of Shanghai nickel in late May was caused by the market's concern about delivery caused by the continuous decline of domestic inventory

another core driver of nickel price is in new energy vehicles and ternary cathode materials. With the increasing share of electric vehicles in global automobile production, the annual increase of nickel in ternary batteries may exceed 500000 tons. With the dual support of policy and scientific and technological innovation, China is the global leader in the production of electric vehicles, and its production capacity has increased nearly five times since 2015. On the 12th of this month, the notice of the Ministry of Finance on adjusting and improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles was officially implemented. The new deal takes "raising the technical threshold requirements" as the first program at the beginning, and clearly proposes to encourage the application of high-energy density and low-energy consumption models, and significantly tilt the subsidy funds to higher technology models, that is, ternary high nickel batteries will gradually become the mainstream of electric vehicles and the market. According to the new data of the automobile industry association, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in May were 96000 and 102000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 19% and 24%; From January to may, a total of 324890 new energy vehicles were sold, a sharp increase of 143% over the same period last year. In May, the retail growth rate of traditional fuel vehicles was only 0.5%. It is the general trend of the world that new energy will replace fuel vehicles in the future

recently, it has a great impact on market supply and demand. It should be a nationwide "look back" action of environmental protection. According to the metal survey of MYM, the quality of things still depends on the quality. In May, the main production areas of ferronickel in China were affected by environmental protection inspectors and shut down more production. Among them, the output of high ferronickel in Inner Mongolia was 17800 tons, accounting for 50% of the output in April; The output of Jiangsu high nickel railway was reduced by 1100. The bridge is the main load-bearing structure on the high-speed railway line, with a decrease of 14%; Shandong, as a domestic nickel pig iron Province, has been suspended for two weeks since May 29 due to the production restriction requirements of the SCO summit, affecting the output accounting for about 5% of the national nickel pig iron output. Due to the reduced supply, the discount of high nickel iron to nickel in the new plant of the enterprise narrowed from nearly 150 yuan/nickel at the end of May to 70 yuan/nickel at the end of this month. In contrast to the downstream stainless steel, in the off-season of traditional consumption in summer, the price rose rapidly in May, and the market wait-and-see mood was strong. In June, the high temperature affected the operating rate and overseas export volume, and the stainless steel price weakened as a whole. In mid June, the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 203000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared with the end of May, an increase of 2.5%. Under the weakening demand, there was a slight backlog in inventory

therefore, under the current macro empty background, the two weak patterns of short-term nickel market supply and demand may continue. However, in view of the strong supply and demand prospect of nickel, bargain hunting intervention and value investment are still medium and long-term strategies. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in the third quarter

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